GAY MARRIAGE AND THE ELECTION: WINNING DEAL FOR GOP? From the Weekly Standard

BILL CAIN is a classic New Deal Democrat. Eighty years old, Cain grew up and lives in Greensburg, Pennsylvania, an old steel town about 30 miles southeast of Pittsburgh. He graduated from Greensburg High, was drafted into the Marines during World War II, and supported his wife and six kids on the wages of a factory worker.

One recent afternoon, Cain was running errands on Euclid Avenue in a working-class section of town. Dressed in blue jeans and a tan jacket, he was holding in his left hand a broom and in his right hand a plastic lawn chair. In a deep voice reminiscent of actor Bob Mitchum, he said, "I've been a Democrat all my life." After voting twice for Clinton, in 2000, he went for George W. Bush. A frequent mass-goer at the Blessed Sacrament Cathedral downtown, Cain supports the president's conservative stand on social issues such as abortion.

Indeed, Cain said his vote will be cast not on the economy or the war in Iraq. Rather, it'll be based on gay marriage. "I'm not bigoted, but the whole damn thing is that the good Lord didn't mean marriage to be for this sort of thing. He wanted marriage to be between one man and one woman, so they could procreate."

Judging by the media's recent coverage of homosexual marriage, you would never guess that many swing voters feel the same. ...

Actually, opposition to gay marriage is a far less narrow phenomenon than supposed. The Republican position is, in fact, at least a 60-40 issue, one that unites their base and attracts swing voters like Bill Cain.

The drive for homosexual marriage in this country has never been popular. Since the campaign kicked off in a 1993 case in Hawaii, a few courts have expressed sympathy, but voters never have. Indeed, in every state where voters have been asked to amend their state constitution to ban gay marriage, they have done so by a stunning margin. ...

Four years later, little has changed. In late February the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press released a study measuring voter intensity on the issue. The headline said it all: "Gay Marriage A Voting Issue, But Mostly for Opponents." A full 34 percent said they would not vote for a candidate who backed same-sex marriage. In contrast, only 6 percent said they would not support an opponent of gay nuptials.

Of course, passing a constitutional amendment affirming the traditional definition of marriage is another story. Not even the amendment's biggest supporters predict passage any time soon.

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posted by Eve at 6:12 PM | link

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