DEMS COULD LOSE SOUTHERN VOTES: From the Associated Press

...No other social issue carves a wider divide between the North and the South than gay marriage. Not abortion. Not gun control. In the South, where as many as two-thirds oppose same-sex marriages, voters say they are far less willing to back a candidate that feels differently.

The Democratic ticket's Southern bounce could hit a speed bump.

Gay marriage, says Merle Black, a professor at Emory University in Atlanta, "goes to the heart of (Southern voters') cultural beliefs. They really believe marriage should be between a man and a woman."

While Kerry and Edwards oppose gay marriage, they argue that it is an issue that should be left to the states to decide. Both senators say they would vote no on the proposed constitutional amendment.

"It will give the Republicans ammunition against Edwards across the South. And they would use that in their advertising closer to the election," Black said.

The Senate vote would come just days before the Democratic National Convention in Boston July 26-29 when Kerry, a four-term Massachusetts senator, and Edwards are nominated by their party. Supporters of the gay marriage amendment acknowledge it is doomed to fail, and the Kerry campaign sees the timing of the vote as pure politics. ...

The latest Associated Press-Ipsos poll found that Kerry slightly strengthened his support in the South with the addition of Edwards.

But polling done in February and March by the Pew Research Center suggests that Southerners, more than folks in any other region, will consider the gay marriage issue in the voting booth.

According to the Pew poll, 68 percent of Southerners oppose gay marriage and nearly 40 percent said they wouldn't cast a ballot for a candidate who votes otherwise. By comparison, 48 percent of those polled in the Northeast oppose gay marriage, and just 26 percent said they wouldn't vote for someone who disagrees. ...

Providing a bit of cover for Kerry and Edwards is that some conservative Republicans -- including former Georgia Rep. Bob Barr -- oppose the amendment saying they don't want the constitution littered with directives that should be left to the states. Others say it shouldn't be used as a tool for discrimination.

And some activists argue that the issue really won't sway votes, with a good portion of the electorate having decided on their candidate or influenced by other matters.

"People vote on broader issues like the economy or the war" in Iraq, said Jeff Soref, a Democratic National Committee member and major fund-raiser in the gay community. "I think that people for whom this is an important issue made up their minds a long time ago."

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posted by Eve at 1:54 PM | link

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