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Wednesday, October 20, 2004

GAY MARRIAGE IN SOUTH DAKOTA: Maggie Gallagher

How big a problem is the gay marriage issue for the Democrats? Reading between the lines on the Mary Cheney flap suggests something pretty big is happening out there in Demland. ...

Even minor defections from the base can spell doom in a tight election. (In the latest New York Times poll, 17 percent of black Americans say they plan to vote for Bush, about double the 2000 vote.) And gay marriage is the kind of issue that, as former Democratic pollster Pat Caddell pointed out on the Oct. 15 "Hannity & Colmes," splits the Democratic base up the middle: "Among (the) most ardent opponents of gay marriage are African-Americans, Hispanics, and voters over 65, the heart of the Democratic Party. That's who Kerry was trying to speak to," says Caddell. He means in that last debate, when John Kerry threw in the fact -- have you heard? -- that Mary Cheney is gay. ...

So Kerry is nervous, and so, apparently, is Democratic minority leader Sen. Tom Daschle, who in a razor-tight race in South Dakota has just started (according to one local observer) running ads suggesting he is against gay marriage, as well as anti-abortion. (Seventy-three percent of South Dakotans in a recent poll strongly disapproved of same-sex marriage.) Daschle received a 100 percent approval rating from the lead gay rights group advocating same-sex marriage, the Human Rights Campaign, and led the charge to stop a federal marriage amendment.

In response, a new 527, "You're Fired Inc.," has started to run ads attacking Daschle on this issue. (To view the ads, go to www.heartlandvalues.com.) Like most of the political advertising I have seen on this issue, they aren't anti-gay at all. They are pro-democracy and pro-marriage:

"Tom Daschle refuses to protect traditional marriage. He would let liberal activist judges redefine it. Most South Dakotans believe marriage should be between a man and a woman, and every child should have the chance to have a father and a mother. We're not interested in depriving anyone of any rights, but let's not allow liberal judges from Massachusetts to redefine marriage for us."

How will that play in South Dakota and the rest of the nation? Stay tuned this November.

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