CATHOLICS, NOT BORN AGAINS, WON IT FOR BUSH: Steven Waldman and John Green

The congealing conventional wisdom is that super-religious, born-again Protestants--a.k.a. the religious right--carried President Bush to victory in 2004. A new Beliefnet analysis of the election data reveals this is only half right.
There was indeed a flood of evangelicals to the polls--but it now appears that the shift in the Catholic vote was just as important and, in crucial states, probably more so.

In addition, Bush also made gains among the moderately religious--and the secular--not just the heavy-duty religious voters who attend religious services weekly or more.

Bush's strong performance among Catholics, it turns out, was crucial to his victory. Bush won Catholics 52%-47% this time, while Al Gore carried them 50%-46% in 2000. If Kerry had done as well as Gore, he would have had about a million more votes nationwide. According to Gallup Polls, only one Democrat since 1952 (Walter Mondale in 1984) lost the Catholic vote by this large a margin.

The Catholic impact was starker in key states. ...

Bush also did better among Hispanic Catholics, getting 42% of the vote in 2004 compared to 31% in 2000. ...

Another surprising finding: Bush did not dramatically improve his standing among people who go to church weekly or more often. ...

Amusingly, the biggest improvement in Bush's performance actually came from those who never go to church. He won 36% of this group compared to 32% last time.

While it is certainly not the case that Bush rode to office on a wave of atheism and secularism, these patterns reveal the complexity of Bush coalition--it was not just the "religious right."

None of this is to suggest that white church-going evangelicals didn't play a significant role. They were probably particularly important in growing Bush's overall popular vote and in some close swing states. A good example is Iowa where where close to a third of the voters this time were white born again Protestants. ...

Second, evangelical turnout was at least partly offset by increased turnout from pro-Kerry groups. Kerry got roughly two million more votes from 18-29-year-olds than Gore did in 2000. He received approximately 1.6 million more votes from African Americans than Gore did. Churchgoers voted in greater numbers--but so did secular voters, and, in fact, nearly everbody else.

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posted by Eve at 6:42 PM | link

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