NOT INEVITABLE: Joshua K. Baker and Maggie Gallagher

...Is the gay-marriage debate over because the omnipotent young have made up their more flexible minds? Many intellectual elites think so, primarily because (we suspect) their own kids are so pro-gay-marriage. A majority of college students now favor gay marriage, and elite student opinion is pretty one-sided on this question, in part because elite opinion generally has been so lopsidedly and unreflectively pro-gay-marriage. But a detailed look at recent polls suggests a different picture for the next generation as a whole.

Do a majority of young adults favor gay marriage? It depends on how the question is asked. Over the past year, polls by reputable polling companies have found the proportion of adults ages 18-29 who favor gay marriage ranging from 40 percent to 63 percent. Conversely, the proportion of young adults opposed to gay marriage has ranged from 36 percent to 54 percent. ...

Perhaps most surprising (and completely unreported), is that the next "next generation" is growing increasingly opposed to gay marriage. Since 2001, Gallup has asked teenagers (ages 13-17) whether they "approve or disapprove of marriages between homosexuals." Between 2003 and 2004, teens' approval of same-sex marriage dropped 6 percentage points, while the proportion that disapproved rose 8 percentage points. In the most recent poll (August 2004) American teens opposed gay marriage by a 27-point margin, 63 percent to 36 percent. Teens' disapproval of gay marriage has now risen to about the same level as adults'.

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posted by Eve at 8:20 PM | link

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