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Thursday, March 23, 2006
Pew Poll Trends
[I asked Josh to pull the question and some recent trend data. Maggie] Pew/PSRA "Do you strongly favor, favor, oppose, or strongly oppose . . . allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally?" March 2006 Favor: 39 percent; Oppose: 51 percent; Other: 10 percent July 2005 Favor: 36 percent; Oppose: 53 percent; Other: 11 percent Dec. 2004 Favor: 32 percent; Oppose: 61 percent; Other: 7 percent Aug 2004 Favor: 29 percent; Oppose: 60 Percent; Other: 11 Percent July 2004 Favor: 32 percent; Oppose: 56 percent; Other: 12 percent March 2004 Favor: 32 percent; Oppose: 59 percent; Other: 9 percent In July 2003 Favor: 38 percent; Oppose: 53 percent; Other: 9 percent |
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What does the average 10% "other" signify? What does "other" mean?
Also, what is the margin of error on these polls? And could we safely add the 10% "other" to that number?
"Other" would include answers like "I'm not sure," "it depends," "I don't know," "I don't want to talk about it," etc.
For the 2006 results, the margin of error was 3%. And no, it is not safe (or at least, not good methodology) to add the "other" and the margin of error; they are two entirely different things.
I'm not sure that these results really show a growth in support for SSM. To me, it looks as if perhaps the shock effect of the Goodridge decision has faded, leaving the polls where they were before Goodridge.
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